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The week will begin with the publication of the unemployment rate registered in Spain, which will allow us to analyse the resilience of our country’s labour market in the face of the greater dynamism of activity compared to the rest of the main economies in the Eurozone. At the same time, the latest reading of the Sentix index in the Eurozone will also be known, relevant to knowing the situation of short-term investment confidence. Next, on Tuesday the 5th, the composite PMI in the Eurozone will be published, remaining in contraction territory (>50 pts.) in its latest reading, and which will also allow us to determine to what degree the divergence of economic momentum between its main member states intensifies. For its part, that day will also highlight the evolution of production prices in the Eurozone, which registered a strong contraction in December in monthly terms (-0.8%). On Wednesday, data on Germany’s trade balance and retail sales in the Eurozone in the month of January will be published, which fell 1.1% in the last month in monthly terms. The week will end with the ECB’s rate meeting and its estimate of the economic outlook for the Eurozone, paying special attention to the wage trend. In a context in which the trend in Germany of factory orders and industrial production in the leading European power and in Spain will also be known. Finally, and as highly relevant data, Eurostat will publish the final reading of the GDP for Q4 2023 in the Eurozone. On a business level, the publication of results from Evonik Industries, Henkel, Bayer, DHL Group, Hugo Boss and Deutsche Lufthansa will stand out. In the UK, it’s all about the money, or at least the give-and-take of the spring budget, with tax cuts expected to try to win the public confidence back by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in his Budget statement on Wednesday, although financial analysts are still pointing out that many public services are already grossly underfunded, and so a tax cut would mean less revenue to pay for much needed improvements. The main problem aside from the needs of the public is that this budget is likely to set to stall out for the pending general election. On Monday, the House of Lords considers the Safety of Rwanda Bill, with a vote on Wednesday scheduled, and pussycat (we can never forget) George Galloway is due to be sworn in as new Rochdale MP following his speech in support of the people of Gaza, which, coincidentally, occurred in a week when protests are expected in support of the calls for an immediate ceasefire. Notable dates this week include March 8, International Women’s Day, and so there will be many events, gatherings, and manifesto pledges in support of equality, and women of one form are celebrated at the weekend in the UK as it’s Mother’s Day on Sunday. Monday also marks the 200th anniversary of the founding of the Royal National Lifeboat Institute, the RNLI, and so we can salute the brave men and women across two centuries who have risked, and in some cases lost, their lives to help those at sea.The Week Ahead – 4 March 2024
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